Long Short Signal 2.0
Long Short Signal
Program generates buy and sell signals. Earn as much as 52%/year with safety by going long/short on highly correlated stocks. Automatically maintains database, does back testing and reporting. Specializes in NT & JDSU. Safety: (1). Long & short on highly correlated stocks. (2) Signals to close positions ensure losses will be small. (3) Consecutive losses are prevented when the market is unstable. by inhibiting the opening of new positions. (4) Close position signal is generated after a fixed amount of loss.
Long Short Signal (LSS) maintains a database of JDS Uniphase and NORTEL Networks. These stocks have a correlation coefficient greater than .97 (1993-2008). The program watches the ratio of JDSU/NT and when that ratio gets too low or too high, it generates a signal to buy or sell the ratio short. If the ratio returns to normal it generates a signal to close positions resulting in a profit. Buying the ratio means buying JDSU and shorting NT. If the ratio is too low or too high it implies a comparison to a normal value. The normal value is an estimation of recent values of the ratio.
Program uses a digital low pass electric filter to determine a normal ratio. The filter attenuates short term spikes but it passes signal changes that occur slowly. The normal level cannot be affected by sudden spikes but it will follow slow moving ratio changes. The normal ratio will follow (with some delay) jumps that remain high (or low).
In order to generate buy and sell signals, there has to be a threshold for deviation of the ratio from the normal ratio. The threshold level and the filter design parameters were optimized to maximize account value over a 14 year period. The average ratio is expected to be somewhat constant because JDSU is an equipment supplier to NT and they are highly correlated.
The software maintains a simple book-keeping system. A signal to open positions divides the account's cash into 2 equal amounts to go long and short.